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14 Mar 2023

When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBPUSD?

UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the February month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to January at 07:00 AM GMT.

Today’s UK employment data becomes more important for the GBP/USD pair traders considering the latest retreat among the Bank of England (BoE) hawks. That said, BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra warned against further interest rate increases. Also increasing the importance of today’s British jobs report is the worsening conditions of the labor strikes in London and hopes of more investment from the government within the new budget.

The UK job market report is expected to show that the Average Weekly Earnings, Including Bonuses, in the three months to January, eased to 5.7% YoY versus 5.9% prior while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen declining to 6.6% from 6.7% prior readings.

Further, the ILO Unemployment Rate is likely to increase to 3.8% versus 3.7% prior for the three months ending in January. It’s worth noting that the market consensus suggests the Claimant Count Change figures to arrive at -12.4K in February versus -12.9K prior with the Claimant Count Rate of 3.9% during the stated period.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD prints mild losses to snap a four-day winning streak around 1.2160 heading into Tuesday’s London open. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers the hopes of more investments from UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt amid the market’s consolidation mode.

It’s worth noting that the recent chatters surrounding downbeat UK employment conditions and a likely increase in government investments could escalate fears for the GBP/USD bears, especially ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Furthermore, the Brexit fears join and the absence of hawkish BoE talks weigh on Cable prices.

Hence, today’s UK data is less likely to please the GBP/USD pair buyers unless marking major positive readings. Even if the British jobs report prints welcome numbers, the Cable pair remains indecisive ahead of the US CPI releases, as well as due to the recent corrective bounce in the US Treasury bond yields. That said, a likely easing in the Employment Change may weigh on the GBP/USD prices amid the US dollar’s rebound, as well as the cautious sentiment.

Technically, The first daily closing above the 50-DMA in five weeks, around 1.2135 by the press time, enables the GBP/USD bulls to aim for the mid-February swing high surrounding 1.2270.

Key notes

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls about to show their commitments

GBP/USD grinds near one-month high below 1.2200 ahead of UK employment, US CPI 

GBP/USD extends downside to near 1.2150 ahead of UK Employment and US Inflation

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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