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21 Dec 2023

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Fresh rally above 0.6300

  • NZD/USD consolidates after correcting from 0.6300 ahead of US economic data, namely core PCE price index.
  • A sticky inflation report may offer temporary cushion to the US Dollar.
  • NZD/USD continues to trade in a Rising Channel chart pattern.

The NZD/USD pair turns sideways after correcting from the round-level resistance of 0.6300 in the European session. The Kiwi asset struggles to find a direction as investors are awaiting the release of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) data for further guidance.

The market participants keenly await the underlying inflation data as it will suggest how long interest rates should remain in the restrictive trajectory. A sticky inflation report may offer temporary cushion to the US Dollar but rising hopes of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep it in the negative territory.

On the Kiwi front, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) restrictive stance for the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has maintained strength in the New Zealand Dollar. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said, in his commentary on Wednesday, decline in Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has made the overall situation complex. The central bank will consider more indicators before the next interest rate decision.

NZD/USD continues to trade in a Rising Channel chart pattern in which each pullback is considered as a buying opportunity by the market participants. The kiwi asset finds resistance while breaking above the round-level resistance of 0.6300. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6165 continues to provide support to the kiwi bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the bullish momentum has already been triggered.

The NZD/USD pair may witness a fresh rally after a decisive break above Wednesday’s high around 0.6300. An occurrence of the same would allow it to refresh its five-month high near 0.6350. Further upside would expose it towards July 14 high around 0.6400.

On the contrary, a breakdown below December 14 low near 0.6168 would drag the asset towards November 30 low near 0.6121, followed by December 13 low near 0.6084.

NZD/USD daily chart

 

Dec 21, 2023

EUR/GBP approaches 0.8700 as the soft UK Inflation weighs on the Pound

The Euro remains moderately bid approaching resistance at 0.8680.
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Dec 21, 2023

EUR/NOK to breach the 12.00 figure in the coming 6-12M – Danske Bank

Economists at Danske Bank still favour a break of 12.00 in EUR/NOK during 2024.
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