Long EUR positions may be tested further if Trump’s march towards a potential second term continues – Rabobank

Speculators’ net EUR positions have been mostly positive over the past couple of years. Economists at Rabobank analyze Euro’s outlook.

Trump’s position on Nato, Ukraine and potentially on climate change could be expensive for Europe

Looking ahead, long EUR positions may be tested further if Trump’s march towards a potential second term in the White House continues. 

Although Biden‘s Inflation Reduction Act has meant that the past four years have not always been easy for Europe, Trump’s position on Nato, Ukraine and potentially on climate change could be expensive for Europe and could increase the safe-haven appeal of the USD. 

We see scope for EUR/USD to dip to 1.0500 on a three-month view.