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24 Jan 2024

USD/CHF halts its winning streak on a subdued US Dollar, moves below 0.8700

  • USD/CHF strives to snap its winning streak as US Treasury yields decline.
  • Markets bets on Fed rate cuts in March have slowed down.
  • Fed’s Bullard has anticipated the central bank to initiate policy rate cuts as early as March.
  • SNB President Thomas Jordan noted that the robust CHF has played a role in capping inflation.

USD/CHF makes an effort to halt its winning streak that began on January 11. The USD/CHF pair trades lower near 0.8690 during the Asian session on Wednesday. This could be attributed to a minor decline in the US Dollar due to the downbeat US Treasury yields.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges lower to near 103.40 with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons standing at 4.32% and 4.11%, by the press time. Market sentiment suggests a decreased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March. However, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has expressed a contrasting view, anticipating the Fed to initiate interest rate cuts even before inflation reaches 2.0%, with the possibility of cuts as early as March.

Moreover, there is full pricing in of a 25 basis point (bps) cut in May, and the chances of a 50 bps cut stand at 50%. Traders are likely eagerly awaiting the release of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States on Wednesday.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan addressed the strong Swiss Franc (CHF) during an event in the Swiss town of Brig on Tuesday. He noted that the robust Swiss Franc has played a role in capping inflation. Additionally, Jordan expressed confidence in the economy, stating, "Economists are confident that there won’t be a recession, and we are also confident, otherwise we would forecast one." He emphasized that while a recession is not expected, the outlook points to weak growth.

In the context of economic indicators, the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland reported last week that the decline in Producer and Import Prices decelerated in December compared to the fall observed in November. Looking ahead, traders are eagerly anticipating the release of Real Retail Sales and the ZEW Survey – Expectations in the coming week. These releases are expected to provide further insights into the trajectory of the Swiss National Bank's interest rates.

 

Jan 24, 2024

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: The key contention level will emerge at 160.40

EUR/JPY loses traction around 160.61 ahead of the German and Eurozone PMI data.
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Jan 24, 2024

Ex-Fed’s Bullard: Fed could cut rates as soon as March

Former St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President James Bullard said on Tuesday that the central bank may begin cutting interest rates before inflation hits 2%, potentially as soon as March.
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