USD/JPY appreciates further and reaches a resistance area at 151.90
- The Dollar appreciates on higher demand for safe assets and investors' cautiousness ahead of the US CPI release.
- US inflation is expected to bolster the case for very gradual Fed easing in 2025.
- The wider gap between US and Japanese Treasury yields is weighing on the JPY.
The US Dollar is trading higher for the second consecutive day on Tuesday. The sourer market sentiment and the rebound in US Treasury yields are supporting the safe-haven USD and weighing on the Yen.
Beyond that, investors are growing increasingly wary of placing large US Dollar bets, awaiting Wednesday’s US Consumer Prices Index reading.
US inflation is expected to confirm that the last mile is the toughest one to run. Consumer prices are expected to have ticked up to a 2.7% yearly rate in November from 2.6% in October, with the core inflation steady at 3.3%, well above the 2% Fed target for price stability.
These figures do not change expectations of a Fed cut next week but they will send a signal towards a more cautious approach to monetary easing in 2025. More so if we take into account the inflationary policies that Trump’s cabinet is expected to implement.
The adverse risk sentiment has triggered some recovery on US Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield crawling to 4.23% from 4.13% on Monday, and increasing the gap with the JGB. This has added bearish pressure on the Yen.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.