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14 Apr 2025

USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range – UOB Group

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD can continue to decline

24-HOUR VIEW: "USD plunged last Thursday. On Friday, we indicated that 'further USD weakness is not ruled out.' We also indicated that 'support levels are at 143.05 and 142.50.' The expected decline exceeded our expectations as USD plummeted to 142.05 before rebounding sharply to close at 143.51 (-0.65%). The rebound in deeply oversold conditions suggests USD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative USD view since early this month, we indicated last Friday (11 Apr, spot at 143.80) that “the renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline.” We pointed out, “mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55.” USD then fell and exceeded 142.50 (low of 142.05). There is no change in our view, but given the oversold conditions, it remains to be seen whether 139.55 is within reach this time round. On the upside, a breach of 145.50 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 146.30 last Friday) would indicate that USD is not weakening further."

Apr 14, 2025

Does the weakness of the USD make it easier for other central banks? – Commerzbank

In addition to the flight to safe havens, the prospect of a further normalisation of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan is also likely to have supported the yen recently. According to statements made by BoJ Chairman Kazuo Ueda this morning, however, the central bank is leaving all options open.
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Apr 14, 2025

TRY: Keeping an eye on inflation expectations ahead of rate meeting – Commerzbank

The latest version of market inflation expectations, published on Friday by Turkey’s central bank (CBT) showed inflation expectation for end-2025 rising by 2pp from 28% to 30%. The margin is not insignificant.
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