India: CPI Inflation to correct in February – Standard Chartered

India will release January industrial production (IIP) and   February CPI inflation data on 12 March while is scheduled to release February trade data from 12-15 March. Economists at Standard Chartered Bank share their forecasts. USD/INR trades at 73.6405.

Key quotes

“We expect IIP growth of 0.5% versus a 0.3% decline in December.” 

“We expect CPI inflation to have fallen to 6.50% from 7.59% in January, mainly driven by a correction in vegetable prices as fresh supply hit the markets, lower prices of egg, meat and fish due to the coronavirus outbreak, and domestic retail fuel price cuts.”

“The trade deficit likely narrowed to USD 11.40bn from USD 15.17bn in January. While positive seasonality in the January-March quarter and lower oil prices have helped, the impact of lower export demand amid the global growth slowdown and seasonal rise in gold demand have limited the trade improvement.”